Anyone who has filled a tank since spring knows gas is expensive: regular averaged $4.49 a gallon on Sept. 25, up 42% from a year earlier. Few prices loom larger for consumers. San Francisco Fed research finds that when households expect gas prices to climb, they expect inflation overall to climb too, and the link is strongest among lower-income households. The question for credit is whether that pain is turning into missed payments.

Fuel works like a regressive tax: the bill scales with miles driven, not income. CCM's state fuel burden index (gallons used × price ÷ household income) shows how unevenly it lands. Mississippi and Alabama carry nearly twice the national burden despite some of the cheapest gas in the country. Even Indiana, with a state gas tax holiday, remains above average. See Exhibit 1.

Exhibit 1

So far, auto loans show no sign of it. CCM tracked 7.1 million active auto loans in 23 public ABS programs. Since January, the share 60+ days past due has held essentially flat in both the ten highest-burden states^[1] and the ten lowest; over the same months last year, it rose about 0.2 points. Even comparing the same lender's borrowers, high-burden states did no worse. Their delinquency rate is higher (2.78% vs. 1.83%), but it was higher before gas spiked, mostly because more of their loans come from subprime lenders.

CCM read: The pump-price squeeze is real, but it hasn't turned into missed car payments. That may say more about where we're looking than about household health. Borrowers protect the car they need to get to work: recent Philadelphia Fed research finds auto payments rank second only to housing, ahead of credit cards.  If the strain shows up, cards and other unsecured credit are the likelier place to see it first.