July CPI rose 0.1%, landing at 3.4% annually and roughly in line with expectations. PPI came in just below forecast. Both cooled September Fed hike odds and pushed the market toward October or December.

Underneath the headlines, though, the components diverged. Energy fell on the month, still up 14.7% from a year ago, and the drop was gasoline, down 2.9%. Crude bottomed near $69 in early July on the US-Iran MOU and has traded in the low $90s since renewed Hormuz attacks, so August should show gasoline rising again. Electricity, utility gas, and medical care services all rose, with medical services posting its largest monthly gain in months. Shelter decelerated to 3.2% year over year from 3.3%. Used vehicles came in 1.9% below last July.

CCM read: Ignore that 1.9% used vehicle decline. Recoveries clear at wholesale auction, and Manheim has July values up 1.3% year over year, not down. That said, the support is thinner than it sounds: the non-EV index, which is most subprime collateral, gained 0.4%, and wholesale sits about 2.5% off the March peak with seasonal depreciation still running. For cards and unsecured, where there is nothing to recover, what matters is income left after the monthly bills. July looked better on that count mostly because of gas, and that reprieve is already gone.

Carvana returned this week with CRVNA 2026-P3, the A-2 AAA at $325M. The pool's weighted-average FICO of 702 sits below the 708 on 2026-P2, as new-vehicle loans continue to creep into what was a used-only shelf. On the other side of the ledger: last week Carvana priced a $1.66B Term Loan B to redeem its 9% 2030 secured notes, refinancing the high-cost debt from its weaker years.