The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index finished June at 212.9, up 2.1% year over year and essentially flat against May, as wholesale values normalized from a tax-refund spring that peaked at a 6.2% annual gain in March. Cox Automotive held its year-end forecast at roughly 2% appreciation, in line with long-term norms. The caution flag sits in the second half: a steep ramp in off-lease maturities, EVs in particular, which Cox says could pressure specific segments even as the headline holds firm. EV wholesale values ran up 13.7% year over year in mid-June, the strongest gain of any segment, which is exactly what a thin market looks like before supply arrives.

CCM read: The EV wave will mostly bypass public ABS pools, where BEV concentrations are minimal and the one pure-play issuer, Tesla, funds privately and manages its own resale channel. The broader exposure is simpler. Net losses are default frequency times loss severity, and elevated used values have been holding severity down while frequency deteriorates underneath. If wholesale values normalize, both components push losses up at once. Watch turn-in rates and residual gain/loss in the public lease shelves.

As of July 1, Grad PLUS is closed to new borrowers and federal graduate lending is capped at $20,500 per year for most students and $50,000 for eleven designated professional programs. CBO projected roughly $19 billion of annual Grad PLUS lending would end; its projected 25 percent rise in capped unsubsidized borrowing recaptures roughly $6 billion of that, leaving a private funding gap north of $10 billion per year. Conversion will be partial: private loans are fully underwritten, and schools are already cutting tuition in response.

CCM read: The ABS supply arrives with the loans, not the legislation. The eliminated volume was Treasury-funded and never touched capital markets, so the gap becomes collateral only as private lenders write it, and grandfathering phases it in over three years. Private lenders originated $10.8 billion in AY 2024-25 per Enterval's consortium data, only 11 percent of it graduate, so the gap is roughly eight times today's private graduate segment. Watch second-half originator disclosures from Sallie Mae, College Ave, Earnest, and SoFi, though the new-issue calendar won't show it in size until 2027. 

COMET led the week's slate, pricing $1.5B across two AAA card series, including a rare 10-year tranche, per IFR.