With May loan-level data filings nearly complete, 2026 60+ day delinquencies are tracking above every prior year in our series. May printed roughly 2.5%, about 25 basis points above May 2025, on a normal seasonal shape. The deterioration is broad: 19 of the 23 shelves reporting 2026 data are running worse year-to-date than the same period in 2025, including the largest captive and bank platforms, Toyota, Honda, GM Financial, and Ally among them, all up double digits.

CCM read: One note on reading these figures. Year-over-year comparisons of a loan pool can be distorted by composition, as new deals season into the data and older ones run off. A loan-level audit, comparing loans at equal age in matched months, confirms the deterioration is genuine: like for like, the market is roughly 9 to 13% worse than a year ago, consistent with the reported figure. A handful of shelves print lower year over year; at equal loan age, some of that improvement holds up and some is pool composition.

The week's lone registered deal is a $1.1B GMCAR 2026-3 from GM Financial's prime shelf. It's announced but not yet priced, so there's no executed WAL or spread yet. The best comp is April's GMCAR 2026-2, whose 1.11-year WAL A-2-A priced at I+40. That deal's collateral included 71.7% loans with original terms over 60 months and a weighted-average FICO of 777, the shelf's lowest since 2022-2. The average 48-month new-car loan rate is 7.36%, down 35 bp year over year, but that's a retail borrowing cost—not a pricing guide for AAA ABS, which trades off swaps, investor demand, and new-issue technicals. Treat I+40 as the reference point, not a forecast; whether GMCAR 2026-3 ultimately prices tighter or wider won't be known until the deal prints.