The 13-year-old car is now the auto-credit baseline

The WSJ's framing this week is the structural backdrop to the ABS deal slate: the average vehicle on U.S. roads is about 13 years old, an historic high and a 10% jump from a decade ago, with automakers, dealers and repair shops adapting to that new normal. S&P Global Mobility puts the fleet at 289 million light vehicles with a steady 4.5% scrappage rate, and passenger cars have aged to 14.5 years even as the count drops below 100 million for the first time since the 1970s. The credit read-through: an older fleet keeps used-vehicle demand deep and durable, which supports used valuations, and used valuations are the recovery assumption sitting under loss severity on used-loan paper like this week's CarMax Select 2026-B. Light-vehicle sales (SAAR) at 16.1M (+3.2% YoY) say the top line holds, but for ABS the aging fleet matters through recoveries, not originations. Watch used-car values.

Source: WSJ (Terlep), via S&P Global Mobility ↗

Off-lease wave hits residuals — used EVs the standout

• Per Edmunds, 3-year residuals sank to 66% of MSRP in Q1 — a five-year low — making used cars stronger value buys.
• Off-lease availability is projected up in 2026, a 25.7% increase, with used EVs the standout deals as inventory builds through year-end.
• The skinny: residual value is the primary risk in lease ABS. Cash flows depend on disposition proceeds at lease-end, so if off-lease supply pushes auction values below booked residuals, the shortfall hits the structure. The exposure isn't uniform — pools that concentrate turn-ins into the soft 2026 window realize the gap most acutely, while staggered or already-run-off maturities dodge it. Senior AAA holders are insulated by credit enhancement and excess spread. Focus on turn-in timing and recovery assumptions.

Source: Edmunds · Q1 2026 ↗